Stroll Can Sprint to Success in Azerbaijan Grand Prix
Author:
Roy Brindley
Just days before the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, a spectacle that stages the first of six sprint races scheduled for the 2023 season, Formula 1 has unveiled a new format for race weekends that features the 100-kilometer contests.
F1 Sprint races made their debut in 2021. The original format saw traditional qualifying moved to Fridays, and it would set the grid for a new 100-kilometer dash race on Saturday. In turn, its finishing order determined the grid positions for the main race the following day.
Sergio Perez and Lance Stroll have both had strong results in Azerbaijan. With two races in Baku this weekend, can they make another visit to the podium? ?GettyImages
From this weekend on, F1 Sprints will effectively become a standalone feature of race weekends when the format is used. The outcome will have no impact on the starting grid for the Grand Prix itself.
Fridays will now feature the Practice 1 session plus a standard qualifying session that sets the grid for Sunday’s Grand Prix. Saturday action will start with a ‘Sprint Shootout’ that will determine the starting grid for the F1 Sprint taking place later in the day.
Points to Prove Punters Right
The points allocation for F1 Sprint races remains unaltered. Eight points are awarded to the winner, seven to the second place, six to third and so on down to a single point for the eighth. In addition to Azerbaijan’s Baku City Circuit, the other F1 Sprint venues for 2023 are Austria, Belgium, Qatar, the United States (Circuit of The Americas) and Brazil.
Two races over a three-day meeting provide more betting opportunities for punters. And this weekend, at a circuit where accidents and incidents are commonplace, at least one big-priced outcome is almost certain to land.
But what is the definition of a shock result? For Sunday’s race, the bookmaker odds of the contest being halted by a red flag are just 11/10. During the past decade, on average, only one race in ten has been red flagged. Bookmakers obviously believe this one could follow Australia’s example and be something of a demolition derby.
Azerbaijan Grand Prix Fact File
- The Baku City Circuit is the fourth longest on the Formula 1 calendar.
- The track is joint highest in terms of gear changes per lap. It requires 72, identical to the number of gear changes in the Singapore Grand Prix.
- The Baku City Circuit ranks highest in terms of braking energy. Two heavy stopping zones lead to a braking force of more than 4g being sustained for over 0.4 seconds at times.
- Given the nature of a street circuit, it should be no surprise that the Safety Car has seen action in three of the last five Azerbaijan Grand Prix (seven individual deployments).
- The section from the exit at Turn 16 to the braking zone for Turn 1 is the longest full-throttle passage of the year. It is around 200 meters longer than the segment from Turns 1 to 5 at Spa-Francorchamps.
- The 2.2-kilometer start/finish straight therefore contributes to a very difficult restart for the leader, with a strong tow for the driver behind leaving them vulnerable heading into Turn 1.
- No driver has won more than once in Baku, with six different winners from six races. Of these six winners, only two have started from pole position: Nico Rosberg in 2016 and Valtteri Bottas in 2019, both driving for Mercedes.
- At least two drivers have failed to be classified as race finishers in every race in Baku. In 2017 and 2018 only 14 drivers completed 90 percent of the race distance.
What Should I Back in the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
In the win market, this is not a good race for favorites. And only once has a pole setter or race winner recorded the fastest lap. Consequently, propositions such as Max Verstappen setting the quickest qualifying time, winning the race, and recording the fastest lap – a miserly 2/1 shot – should be instantly dismissed.
What could be entertained is a big outsider making the frame and earning supporters some each-way or place-only winnings. In 2017 Lance Stroll, driving a Williams, defied his 250/1 odds to snag third place.
Sergio Perez also finished third in 2018 when driving a relatively slow Force India. This was his only podium finish in an 88-race spell spanning four years. Likewise, Pierre Gasly’s only podium finish from his last 56 race starts came here in 2021.
Stroll Can Win a Second Podium in Baku
The best online betting sites rate Stroll’s chances of winning his maiden Formula 1 race in Baku on Sunday at 125/1. With Verstappen trading at odds-on, each-way betting terms are positions 1-2 only. The Canadian is 7/1 to claim his second trophy in the Azerbaijan capital, and under the circumstances, this is probably the better bet.
Stroll’s Aston Martin has proven itself to be a fast car. Veteran Fernando Alonso has driven his Aston into third position in all three of this season’s races. Stroll has yet to reach a podium step, but he has qualified in the top 10 of all three contests, and he most recently finished fourth in Australia.
