Is Andre Fabre Primed to Win a Ninth Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe?
On paper, the 2024 Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is one of the most competitive renewals of the famous Group-1 race in decades. Andre Fabre trains the big race favourite, Grand Prix de Paris winner, Sosie. Fabre has already trained a record-breaking eight l’Arc de Triomphe winners.
Since his Prix Niel victory, Andre Fabre’s Sosie has traded as the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe favourite. ?PMU
To quantify Fabre’s remarkable Arc achievements, consider Irish-trained horses have claimed the prize eight times in the race’s 104-year history! Aidan O’Brien’s Los Angeles appears to be Ireland’s best hope of improving the country’s record in 2024. The Irish Derby winner sits fourth on online betting sites Arc de Triomphe betting lists.
Many nations hope to have their horse’s name etched into the history books. Not least Japan, a country that has swept all before it on a global stage but has yet to win Europe’s most valuable race despite five decades of trying. Will 2024 be Japan’s year? Read our thoughts on the leading protagonists below.
Arc de Triumph Entries in Betting Order
Sosie (Trainer: Andre Fabre)
Andre Fabre’s name, alongside any horse in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe’s entry list, will always earn the ‘red pen treatment’ – and be treated cautiously by online betting sites’ odds compilers. The ‘master trainer’ has two horses towards the top of the betting list, with Sosie topping it.
Third, beaten two-and-a-quarter lengths behind Look De Vega in the French Derby, this son of Arc winner Sea The Stars stepped up to 12 furlongs to win the Group-1 Grand Prix de Paris. Backing up that performance with a smooth victory in the Prix Niel, an established Arc prep race, he leapt to the head of the betting.
All of this three-year-old’s form is on soft and heavy going. The Arc is regularly run on those underfoot conditions, and the weather forecast is currently in his favour.
Look De Vega (Trainer: C & Y Lerner)
After readily winning the French Derby on just his third career start, the l’Arc de Triomphe was pinpointed as Look De Vega’s long-term objective. He took a three-month summer break while bookmakers, possibly buoyed by Ace Impact’s ability to win both races in 2023, made him the favourite for the French showpiece.
However, his odds doubled when he was beaten three-and-a-half-lengths into third behind Sosie in the Prix Niel in mid-September. Time will tell if a lack of fitness was Look De Vega’s undoing. His trainer’s stable has been in poor form during September, with four favourites failing to make the each-way paying positions.
Are we looking at Japan’s first Arc winner in Shin Emperor? ????????#シンエンペラー | @PMU_Hippique | @netkeiba pic.twitter.com/hpXMpThoFm
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) September 23, 2024
Shin Emperor (Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi)
Finishing third as a 16/1 shot in the Japanese Derby, this Japanese raider resurfaced in Ireland, where he was beaten just a length in the Champion Stakes. It was a massive performance over 10 furlongs from a horse that indicated he would appreciate the Arc’s 12 furlongs.
2024’s race will be the 20th Arc that features at least one Japanese-trained horse, and the nation had a very strong hand in 2022. Resident in France since late August, Shin Emperor will be one of the country’s best-prepared challengers. Incidentally, he was born in France, where his dam raced.
Los Angeles (Trainer: Aidan O’Brien)
Beaten six lengths into third in the Epsom Derby, Los Angeles next appeared in the Irish Derby, which he won. Just a length-and-a-half covered the first four at the Curragh, and that was the case in Los Angeles next assignment, the Group-2 Great Voltigeur, which he also won.
WHAT A FINISH!
Economics denies Auguste Rodin in the @BahrainTurfClub Irish Champion Stakes!
A brilliant run from Japanese raider Shin Emperor in third, too ?? #シンエンペラー | #競馬 | @netkeiba@LeopardstownRC | @TomMarquand | @WilliamHaggas pic.twitter.com/Kcjv0GWVvA
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) September 14, 2024
His one subsequent outing came in the Irish Champion Stakes, where Shin Emperor passed him in the closing stages, finishing a neck behind him. Having won two Group-1s and scored on all sorts of going, Los Angeles has to be of interest. But he has never produced the type of breathtaking performance that most previous Arc winners have brought to the party.
Delius (Trainer: Jean-Claude Rouget)
Jean-Claude Rouget won the 2020 and 2023 running of the Arc de Triomphe, so his runners in the contest should be respected. Delius was unraced at two but completed a hattrick when winning a Group 2 in May. This son of Frankel has since finished third in the Grand Prix de Paris (won by Sosie) and split Sosie and Look De Vega in the Prix Niel.
If Sosie and Look De Vega run according to their prices, he should be right in the mix. And, if Jean-Claude Rouget waves his magic wand, Delius might outrun them all in the €5 million contest – particularly if faring well in the draw with the advantage of a low-numbered starting gate.
Al Riffa (Trainer: Joseph O’Brien)
This four-year-old has been campaigned at a high level throughout his career. However, one win in his last six outings (over two seasons) makes him difficult to fancy, particularly as that win came in a weak German contest. He was undoubtedly flattered by his one-length defeat by City Of Troy in the Coral Eclipse, and that race’s 10-furlong trip is probably Al Riffa’s optimum distance.
Aventure (Trainer: Christophe Ferland)
Aventure is an interesting contender, given she will get a significant weight pull from the main protagonists as a three-year-old filly. She also brings some very different form to the party, including career-best efforts in her last two starts. The first when stepped-up to the Arc trip and winning in a three-way photo in a fillies Group-2 in Deauville.
This was topped by three-quarter-length second in the mares and fillies Group-1 Prix Vermeille at Longchamps in mid-September. With Emily Upjohn – a Group-1 winner who had been out of sorts but could be returning to her best, finishing third – the merit of the run is difficult to assess, but it could be strong.
And the Winner Is… Arc de Triumph Verdict
Three-year-olds fill six of the top seven spots in the betting. It is noteworthy that only three of the last ten winners were from the classic generation, the remainder were aged four or five. Fillies and mares get a weight advantage and have an exemplary recent record in recent Arcs. However, neither category has a strong representative in this year’s Arc.
Ultimately, the competitive nature of the race means the 2024 Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is a race to savour and not one to get too heavily involved in from a betting perspective. For small stakes, our experts suggest laying Al Riffa in match-bets and in place only markets with bookmaker sites that have a betting exchange, as the odds appear to overrate his chances.
