F1: Will the New Losail International Circuit Provide a Shock?

Last weekend in Sao Paulo Lewis Hamilton triumphed through considerable adversity. The Englishman’s Brazilian Grand Prix success cut Max Verstappen’s World Championship lead down to 14 points. It leaves the championship betting finely poised. Both drivers can now be backed at 10/11.

Three rounds of the Formula 1 season remain, all will be staged in the Middle East. This weekend the action comes from the Losail International Circuit. It is located on the outskirts of Qatar’s capital city of Doha.

Red Bull were as keen as any team to explore the Losail International Circuit on Friday morning. On this occasion, Max Verstappen topped the timesheets. ©Getty/RedBull

The duel in the desert will then head to the brand-new Jeddah Corniche Circuit for the Saudi Arabia Grand Prix. The curtain will fall on the most exciting Formula 1 season in over a decade on December 12 in Abu Dhabi.

Max on Facts

In the Formula 1 World Championship 25 points are awarded for a race win. 18 go to the second-place finisher, third gets 15. There is an additional point for the driver that sets the fastest lap of the race.

Given the recent form – and experts’ belief Hamilton’s Mercedes will be the superior car at the next two venues – it is conceivable Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton will arrive at the final race of the year level on points.

However, those expert performance predictions from circuit to circuit have been wayward for much of 2021.

The facts show Verstappen has been superior during the middle part of the season. The Dutchman has won seven of the last 13 races. At the same time, Hamilton has only scored three times.

Turn On the Temperature

It is easy to forget Formula One is making its first visit to Qatar. The Losail International Circuit is a brand-new track for the sport. So, what can be expected?

At 5.418-kilometers, the lap length is middle-range. Being predominantly used for motorcycle racing, the circuit has a fast and flowing nature. There are 16 corners in total, 10 right-handers and six left-handers.

The track’s main straight is 1,068-meters long. It will be the only part of the track where drivers can use their drag reduction system (DRS). With just one DRS zone it is likely overtaking to be very difficult.

Turns six, 10 and 16 may offer a chance to pass if a mistake is made. The same cannot be said of turns four and nine. They are tight and will put significant temperature into the tires. Drivers will be conscious of overheating them.

Losail International Circuit: Fast and flowing with just one DRS zone. ©MercedesF1

Simulating the Unknown

Technically the track appears similar to the Hungaroring or Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya. However, initial reports suggest the surface is very abrasive. It could lead to high tire degradation and force teams to consider a two and even three pitstop strategy.

The Qatar climate provides average daytime temperatures around 29 degrees Celsius. However, this is an evening race staged under floodlights. It will be cooler at night.

Resultantly, the daytime temperatures encountered during data-mining practice sessions will not give those charged with setting cars up in race trim all the information they need.

So, this race is a step into the unknown for everyone. There is no historical data to work from. Only computer simulations will have assisted the teams heading into the weekend.

But these programs will have only limited information on specific track characteristics like bumps in the road. It makes ride-height calculations very difficult.

Bottas to Go Four From Five in Pole Race?

Considering all the imponderables, this could be a contest where there is a shock result of some kind. Would a pole position start for Valterri Bottas be considered a ‘shock’?

Understanding the Finn has started from pole position in three of the last four races on the calendar, it would not be the big surprise the odds of 13/2 suggest.

At even bigger prices are the Ferrari coupling of Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc in the fastest lap market. They can both be backed at 33/1 with the leading betting sites. Possibly not a bad bet.

Sainz has finished in the points (a top-10 finish) in his last 12 starts and has claimed two podium finishes during the season. In the races where both drivers have finished, Leclerc has finished ahead of him 13 times.

Admittedly neither have claimed a fastest race lap during the year, but Ferrari are the team that could benefit most from taking a late pitstop for fresh tires towards the very end of Sunday’s race.

Acutely aware the Red Bull and Mercedes teams will mirror one another’s strategy; it would only make sense for the Italian outfit to employ a contra strategy and finish the race on fresh tires. Fresh tires are fast tires and that is what is needed to claim the distinction of ‘fastest lap’.

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