Are Johnson and the Tory’s Losing Their Grip?
Author:
Roy Brindley
Two years have now past since Boris Johnson assumed the role of Prime Minister. It is also a remarkable 19 months since he was elected into the job with his Conservative Party claiming a landslide victory. The Tory’s took 365 seats and 43.6% of the popular vote at the last election. But in the deep blue strongholds it appears that popularity is beginning to wane.
With the Tory’s blue wall slowly changing color, are there dark clouds overhead for Boris Johnson? ?Sven Hansche / Shutterstock
Amongst the messy divorce, which was Brexit, contracting Covid-19 and managing an ongoing Coronavirus pandemic, Boris Johnson can possibly be described as a ‘crisis leader’. History shows one of his predecessors, Anthony Eden, did not fare too well under these circumstances.
4/9 The Tory’s to Win the Most Seats at The Next Election
So exactly how long can we expect the 57-year-old leader, nicknamed ‘Bumbling Boris’, to stay in power? Betfred doesn’t believe he will be going anywhere anytime soon. It is offering 7/1 for Johnson forfeiting his role in 2021 and 4/1 about a 2022 departure. Indeed, it is 4/11 that the New York born politician will remain in power until 2023 or beyond.
These odds roughly mirror those available on the year of the next general election. You can avail yourself of 11/5 on a 2023 election while it is 1/2 on a 2024 election.
It would therefore appear likely Boris Johnson is set to stay at the helm of the country for his full tenure. But will he, or his party, win the most seats at the next general election? While that is considered a 4/9 shot by most leading online betting firms, a recent poll results suggest the Tory grip on power is loosening.
The Blue Heartland Wall Is Crumbling
This week YouGov, the British international internet-based market research and data analytics firm, announced results from its study of 53 constituencies in the south and east of England that are currently held by the Conservative Party.
“The Conservatives could be set to lose up to 16 seats in their ‘blue wall’ heartlands if an election was held tomorrow,” YouGov research manager Patrick English wrote in his report after analyzing voter intentions in these areas.
“That represents a change of minus eight for the Conservatives from their 2019 performance in these constituencies, plus four for Labour, a surprising six-point drop for the Liberal Democrats, and a sizeable seven-point gain for the Greens. While it would not be anywhere near enough to offset the party’s losses in the so-called red wall in 2019, Labour punching holes in traditional Tory foundations will send alarm bells ringing across Conservative Associations and MPs in the south.”
Indeed, YouGov’s findings will make uncomfortable reading for Tory stalwarts. Their report continues: “A large drop in the Conservative vote share would also severely threaten four other Tory constituencies, including current Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab in Esher and Walton as well as Cambridgeshire South, Cities of London and Westminster, and Guildford.”
The survey shows evidence that the population of this ‘blue wall’ stronghold is slowly but surely drifting away from the Conservative party. Nearly one quarter (23 percent) agreed with the suggestion that “the Conservative party used to represent the views of people like me, but no longer does.” 32 percent agreed with the suggestion that “the Conservative Party has never represented the views of people like me”.
Rishi Sunak is the bookies favorite to succeed Boris Johnson as head of the Conservative Party
?Stratos Brilakis / Shutterstock
Sunak Is Favorite to Collect the Blue Baton from Johnson
While Johnson is not at the helm of a clearly stricken ship – rather one that has encountered choppy-waters – the inevitable day will come when he joins the ranks of living former Conservative Prime Ministers: Theresa May, David Cameron and John Major.
In the market on ‘who will be the next leader of the Conservative Party’ it is Rishi Sunak the public and bookmakers’ like. The Chancellor of the Exchequer has been favorite to succeed Johnson since March 2020 and has held firm at 2/1 since May 2020.
Michael Gove is currently second favorite at 6/1 while Jeremy Hunt, the former Health and Foreign Secretary, is the only other candidate given a single digit quote. He is 8/1.
